The 2021/22 Bundesliga title is closer than it has been in a while, after Bayern Munich lost a nine-point lead at the top of the table. The Rekordmeister now only have a six point lead over a Borussia Dortmund team who are the Bundesliga’s most in-form team in 2022.
The Black-Yellows have taken the most points this calendar year in the league and have Bayern Munich playing catch up to them in 2022. With the points gap reduced and Bayern’s Bundesliga form stuttering, there is a chance that the defending champions could lose their decade-hold grip on the title.
Overlyzer takes a look at the possibility of a Dortmund upset in the Bundesliga using information from the best betting websites featured on our platform.
Dortmund’s mathematical chances of winning
There are seven match days to go in the Bundesliga for 21 points to help Borussia Dortmund usurp the title from Bayern. However, the BVB have to play Red Bull Leipzig and Bayern Munich in that time frame, which could prove tricky.
We predict Dortmund’s best points haul from the last seven games to be 14 points, gathered from wins and draws against RB Leipzig, VfB Stuttgart, Wolfsburg, VfL Bochum, Greuther Fürth, and Hertha Berlin.
Meanwhile, Bayern is on course to win every remaining match in the Bundesliga and rack up the remaining 21 points, but fatigue from their participation in the UEFA Champions League may count in favor of Dortmund, who only have the league to worry about at this time.
Dortmund’s historical chances of winning
While Dortmund has been the only team to disrupt Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga winning streak in the last 15 years, history still favors Die Rekordmeister in the league.
In all of Bundesliga history, any team that has led the table between Matchday 26 and Matchday 27 ends up winning the league, which also puts the title in favor of Bayern Munich. Bayern’s nine-year chokehold on the title proves the theory beyond doubt.
However, Bayern not only have their Champions League fixtures to worry about, but also injuries to key players in their squad. Leon Goretzka and Alphonso Davies are two important missing pieces for the defending champions.
Star frontman Robert Lewandowski, also, has been rested for a few more games than normal this season. With the all-important UCL fixtures in the final stretch of the season, we could see more Bayern Matchday squads without the Polish striker to give Dortmund the edge.
Dortmund’s psychological chances of winning
Dortmund fans and players have begun to see the silver lining for their side as the season reaches its climax. However, the leaders of the club have downplayed their chances of winning the title on many occasions.
They have learned from history not to count their chickens before they hatch when it comes to the Bundesliga. This mental block, while logical, is defeatist because football is a game of half chances.
However, their biggest psychological obstacle still lies ahead on match day 31 when they face Bayern in Der Klassiker. That match will have a major bearing on the title.
The odds, while not yet entirely in Dortmund’s favour, look a lot better than they were at the midpoint of the season and a bet on Marco Rose’s side will not be too far off the mark this season, compared to others.