Borussia Dortmund visit Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 against Chelsea. With the Blues 1-0 down on aggregate, Graham Potter faces a huge test.
Karim Adeyami steered home Dortmund’s opener in the second half to give the hosts a crucial one-goal lead. The English side failed to find the back of the net despite desperate efforts.
Chelsea have shown decent home form this season, winning only six out of 12 matches at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League. In the Champions League group stages, the Blues won on home territory against AC Milan and Dynamo, helping them finish first in the group. Meanwhile, Dortmund have seven wins in 12 away games in the Bundesliga and won only one of their three away games in the group stage, beating Sevilla in the process.
Below are some stats from the first-leg encounter between both teams to help foresee how the upcoming meeting between the two could pan out.
Overall performances of the teams
The viz above shows the percentile rank of both teams’ stats compared to each other as well as to other teams in the UEFA Champions League in 2022–23. It can be seen that Chelsea has better overall stats than Borussia Dortmund in most departments. Notably, the English giants have better stats in terms of xG, accurate/key passes, and possession rate. Alternatively, there are no indicators for which the Bundesliga team holds the advantage, but they are at par with the Blues in areas such as goals and penalty area entries.
Attacking areas in the first leg
The two visuals above show the shot maps of both teams from the first leg of the UEFA Champions League contest. Borussia Dortmund took 13 shots in total and ended the match with 0.72 xG compared to the 1.82 xG accumulated by the Blues from 18 shots. Notably, Chelsea were more accurate and had seven shots on target but were unable to find the back of the net.
Team positioning in the first leg
Chelsea maintained 49.48% possession and made 492 passes (87.5% accuracy) compared to Dortmund’s 50.52% possession and 438 passes (86.9% accuracy). Graham Potter’s side lined up in a 4-4-1-1 formation and heavily depended on Enzo Fernandes to transition possession into the attack.
Borussia Dortmund played much deeper in their own half but had the advantage of having two pivots in the middle of the park in the form of Can and Ozcan. The team played 4-1-4-1 and managed to make breaks using wider areas.
The two visuals above compare both teams based on the number of times they regained possession in the final third. Chelsea were much more successful in putting pressure high up the pitch. The Blues made a total of ten dangerous recoveries, five of which were in the final third. The Germans were not as successful in forcing recoveries, and Chelsea were able to play out from behind in tight-pressure situations.
Fernandez is a key signing for Chelsea in the form of a replacement for Jorginho. He is a versatile midfielder and has adapted to the role quickly. The above viz represents his progressive passes from the current UCL season. He makes 11.34 passes into the penalty area per 90, and Graham Potter will be hoping to see some magic on the pitch at the feet of the Argentine.
Jude Bellingham is one of the best players in Europe going forward. He has scored four goals in six UCL appearances this season. He has taken seven shots in total and has an overall xG of 0.75 in the competition. He has scored most of his goals from inside the box.
If Chelsea are to win this game, their defenders must ensure that the English forward does not have a good game.
The Stamford Bridge will miss out on N’Golo Kante, Armando Broja, Edouard Mendy, Cesar Azpilicueta, and Thiago Silva. Mason Mount will miss out due to suspension.
Dortmund boss Edin Terzic will miss Julian Ryerson due to suspension, with Adeyemi not playing this time around due to injury concerns.
Overall, this match promises to be a close affair, with both teams having plenty of quality players in attack and defence. However, Dortmund may have the edge in terms of recent form, having won the first leg and is in fine form in the Bundesliga. If Chelsea can contain the German attack, they could be well on their way to another victory.
Visuals via Wyscout and TFA data viz engine