Dortmund are sitting one place above Freiburg inside the UEFA Champions League qualification spots by virtue of having a superior goal difference, meaning that the visitors must win if they are to leapfrog their opponents.
Freiburg, meanwhile, secured their first win of the calendar year with a 3-1 victory against Augsburg at Europa-Park Stadion last weekend.
It is a very important fixture for both sides as it will determine who takes the upper hand in European qualification this season. Below we look at some of the stats for the teams from the current season, which can help determine the most likely outcome of the match.
The visual above shows the percentile rank of both Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund compared to other teams in the Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund have better stats than Freiburg in possession, final third entries, recoveries, and shots per game. Freiburg, on the other hand, have done well in making entries in the opposition’s penalty area per 90 minutes and have a decent percentile rank in terms of xG per match.
Borussia Dortmund are currently in fourth place in the 2022–23 German Bundesliga, with 34 points from 18 matches played. They have won 11 matches, drawn one, and lost six. They have scored 33 goals (31.05 xG) and conceded 25 goals (23.1 xGA). Dortmund have scored most of their goals from inside the box, but as can also be seen in the above viz, the team has around eight goals from outside the box. The top scorer for Borussia Dortmund in the 2022–23 German Bundesliga is Youssoufa Moukoko with six goals (5.62 xG). The team averages 13.28 shots per match with 41% accuracy.
SC Freiburg are currently in fifth place in the 2022–23 German Bundesliga, with 34 points from 18 matches played. They have won ten matches, drawn four, and lost four. They have scored 29 goals (28.81 xG) and conceded 25 goals (24.2 xGA). They average 12.56 shots per 90, with 41.2% shot accuracy. Most of their goals have come from inside the box, and they also manage to find the target from long range.
High pressure and defensive success
The above two visuals represent the ranking of teams in the Bundesliga based on their percentage of defensive duel wins and success in making recoveries in the opponent’s half. It can be seen that both teams are close to each other when it comes to successful defensive duels (52% success rate). On average, Dortmund attempts 63.06 defensive duels and makes 44.67 interceptions per 90 versus 63.08 defensive duels and 39.72 interceptions per 90 for Freiburg.
In terms of recoveries in the opponent’s half, Dortmund are ranked second in the Bundesliga, averaging 90.57 recoveries per 90, of which 12.0 are in the opponent’s half. Meanwhile, Freiburg are one of the lower-ranked sides and averages only 9.0 recoveries in the opposition’s half per match out of a total of 86.11 recoveries per 90.
In the 2022–23 German Bundesliga season, Jude Bellingham played 17 matches. He has 12 shots on target from a total of 26 and has scored four goals (3.53 xG). Jude Bellingham averages 54 passes per match with a pass completion rate of 82% and has three assists. It can be seen in the above viz that Jude has scored most of his goals from inside the box. He averages 1.71 shots per match with an accuracy rate of 38.7%.
Dortmund will be without the suspended Salih Ozcan, who received his fifth booking of the season during his side’s win against Leverkusen last time out. Marco Reus returned from injury to make an appearance from the substitutes’ bench against Alonso’s side and he could replace Ozcan to start behind Sebastien Haller, who made his first start for the club after recovering from surgery to remove a testicular tumour, meaning a deeper midfield role for England international Jude Bellingham.
Freiburg, meanwhile, will travel with a fully-fit squad should Roland Sallai shake off his recent muscle injury as expected. If so, the Hungary winger may be eased into action from the bench. Nicolas Hofler will almost certainly displace Yannik Keitel in the engine room after missing his side’s recent win through suspension, while Vincenzo Grifo could start in place of Holer in order to provide more pace and dribbling ability in transition.
Both teams require a win in their quest for UEFA Champions League qualification. Borussia Dortmund will be the favourites to win this match.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine